Dhaqaalaha Soomaaliya waxa uu xoog ugu tiirsan yahay ganacsiga (heavily depend on trade) si gaara badeecadaha la soo dejiyo (imported goods), xoolaha, xawaaladaha iyo isgaadhsiinta. Alaabaha ganacsi ee la soo dhoofiyo waxay ka tahay GDP-ga 40% halka waxdhoofinta ay tahay 10%, waxa cad in Soomaaliya ku jirto isu-dheelitirnaan la’aan dhaqaale (imbalance economy).

Aragti dhaqaale oo dalalka ay ka hirgashay yihiin kuwa ladan ayaa ah “Export product should be greater than the import commodities” oo micnaheedu tahay marka dhaqaalaha waddanka laga hadlayo si dhaqaalaha wadanku u kobco marwalba waa in waxa aad dhoofisaa ka badan yahay waxa aad soo dhoofsanayso. Aynu bal ugo horayn eegno.

2018 Somalia waxa ay soo dhoofsatay badeeco dhan $3.1 billion, waxa ayna dhoofisay $675 million sida ka muuqata jaantuska oo aan ka soo xigtay Bangiga Dhexe ee Somaliya 2010 ilaa 2018 wax soo dejinta iyo wax dhoofintu iskuma miisaana oo waxaa badan alaabaha ganacsi ee la soo dhoofsaday.

Year Trade values
  Imports Exports
2010 $1,597,155,442            $378,721,089
2011 $2,201,762,061

 

              38% $477,240,773          26%
2012 $3,023,954,041               39% $495,358,646          4%
2013 $3,747,322,791               24% $654,919,168           24%
2014 $3,229,885,449               14% $649,974,385           0.8%
2015 $3,360,186,573               4% $723,125,922           11%
2016 $3,303,392,534               2% $660,918,250           9%
2017 $2,892,818,590               12% $451,610,848           32%
2018 $3,170,000,000               10% $675,000,000           49%
2019
2020

 

Iibka dhoofka xoolaha iyo ganacsiga waxa ay kiciyaan wadarta waxsoosaarka dhaqaalaha guud, sanadkii 2015 ganacsiga Somalia ayaa hoos u dhac balaadhan oo si weyn u sibiibixday la kowsaday, halka markalena sidoo kale hoobtay 2017. Tirade xoolaha la dhoofiyay sanadkii 2017 tusaale ahaan, waxa ay ahayd tii u hoosaysay ilaa 2007 iyada oo 26% dhoofku hoos uga soo dhacay.  Sanadkii 2015 waxay dhoofisay 5.3 million oo xoolo ah halka sanadkii 2017 hoos u dhacay oo ay dhoofisay 1.3 million oo neef.

Bangiga adduunku qiyaas uu sameeyay waxa dhaqaalaha Somaliya kobcay wakhtigaas 2.3% iyadoo ay saamaysay abaartii darnayd ee 2016/2017 dhinacyada beeraha iyo xoolaha. Abaartaasi waxa ay keentay burbur xoogan oo soo gaaray xoolaha nool iyo waxsoosaarka dalagyada beeraha laakiin burburka dhaqaale ee abaartaas ka dhashay waxa lagu qiyaasaa aduun gaadhaya $1.7 Billion.

Sanadkii 2019 waxsoosaarka dhaqaale ee Somalia waxa lagu qiyaasay $7.4 billion, korodhka waxsoosaarka gudaha (domestic production) wuxuu muujinayaa 4% ilaa 6% celcelis ahaan sanadaha 2018-2019, Qiyaasta tirada dadweynaha ku nool Somalia oo ah 15.2 milyan oo qof, wadarta guud ee waxsoosaarkeeda gudeedna yahay $7.4 billion, koboc ahaana 6% ah, halka saami dakhli ee qofka waa $478 tani oo ka dhigan in wax ka yar qoyskii ku noolyahay isticmaalka maalintii $3 sanadkii (2019).

Korodhka 2019 waxa tilmaamayaa in la gaadhay xasilooni amni, soo-kabashada waxsoosarka beeraha, cimilo wanaagsan iyo taageeradda socota ee beesha caalamka. Sidoo kale isbedelka cilimada iyo deegaanka ku yimid sida roobabkii oo batay 2019 iyo badh ka qaadidii Sucuudiga xilliga mawsimka Xajka ee xayiraadii xoolaha waxa ay dhamaantood muujinayaan koritaan dhaqaale oo dhexdhexaad ah.

Xilli roobaadkii 2019 oo wanaagsanaa ayaa Somaliya heshay dalagii ugu wanaagsanaa tobankii sano ee la soo dhaafay. Dadka tabaalaysan waxay hoos u dhaceena 4.6 million halkii ay awal ahaayeen 6.5 million sida ay qortay hay’adda Cuntada iyo Beeraha (FAO) qaybteeda qaablisan warbixinadda biyaha.

Guud markaas haddii aynu ka nimaadno oo aynu dulucda ciwaanka u nimaadno si aad iila fahanto ayaan u soo qaatay hordhacaas dhaqaale oo ibafur u noqonaya in aad ila dhugato halka weedhahaygu ku arooryaan.  Indhaha caalamka oo dhan waxa ay ku jiraan halgan sidii ay u maarayn lahaayeen dhaqaalaha ciiray, sidoo kale dowlad kastaa waxay xooga saaraysaa sidii ay dabiib caafimaad ugu heli lahayd dadkeeda iyo sidii ay ula tacaali lahayd suuqeeda. Somaliya oo dhibka safmarka Covid 19 la qabta dalalka caalamka aafadan la daalaa dhacaya, ayaa iyadda iyo dalal kooban (underdeveloped countries) la gooni yihiin in dhaqaalahoodu si xad dhaafa ugu tiirsan yahay wadamada la isku yidhaa waddamada horumaray (developed countries).

Dowladihii waaweynaa waxaa ka yeedhaya qayla dhaan badan, wadamadii lahaa warshadaha waxaa soo wajahday xaalad dhaqaale xumo. Waddan kasta waxaa is-dhimay waxsoosaarkiisii (manufacturing deficit), waxaa yaraaday dakhligii dowlada (state income shortage), sidoo kale waxaa hoos u dhacay wax kala iibsigii suuqa (decline paying market). Bal aynu afar meelood ka eegno saamanyta dhaqaale ee fayraska karoone ku yeelanayo dakhliga dowladda federaalka, wax kala iibsiga suuqa, dhoofka xoolaha iyo qaadka.

Saamaynta Dakhliga Dowladda Federaalka

Sida ku cad odoroska miisaaniyadda dowladda federaalka ee sanadka 2020 oo wadarteedu ku dhawdahay nus bilyan doolar, odoroska dakhliga cashuuraha ayaa ah 50.3% wadarta guud ee miisaaniyada halka 49.7% ay ka imanayso deeqaha dalalka shisheeye. Labadan ilo-dakhli ayuu saamayn taban oo toosa (negative direct impact) ku yeeshay durba, iyadoo dakhliga cashuuraha bilaha ah ee March iyo April durba ay si weyn isku dhimeen. Tusaale cashuurta qaadka madaarka Xamar dowladu waxa ay ka heli jirtay cashuur dhan $14 milyan sanadkii oo ka dhigan in bishii $1.6 milyan. Sidoo kale waxaa meesha ka baxaya khidmooyinkii garoomadda diyaaradaha ay ka heli jirtay. Saamaynta taban ee halkaas ka imanaysaa ayaa s toosa raad ugu yeelanaysa cid kasta oo dowlada dakligeeda ku tiirsanayd sida qandaraashlayaasha macaashiicda iyo cid kasta oo dowladu wax ka iibsan jirtay.

Saamaynta Kala iibsiga Suuqa (paying market)

Suuqa ganacsi ee soomaalidu laba jeer aad ayuu u kacaa wareega dhaqaale ee uu sameeyaana aad u fiican yahay.  Wakhtiydda labada ciidood iyo wakhtiga xagaaga ee qurbajoogtu soo laabato waa labada xilli ee dhaqdhaqaaqa suuqu isbedel wanaagsan laga dareemo. Wakhtiyada labada ciidood si gaara bishan ramadaan ee aynu ku jirno waxa kor u kaca baahida dalabaadka dadka suuqa waxaa soo gala dhaqaale xoogle waxaana kor u kaca wax kala iibsiga oo si muuqda uga qeyb qaata wareega suuqa “circulation market” soomaalida.  Qurbajoogtu bishan waxay eheladooda ay u soo diraan dhaqaale badan oo ka badan lacagihii hore ay ugu soo diri jireen bilaha kale ee sanadka. Xadiga lacagta qubajoogtu sanadkii soo diraayn ayaaa lagu qiyaasaa $1.3 bilay oo doolar,

Saamaynta Qaadka

Qaadku waa ilo-dhaqaale oo muhiim u ah bulsho ka mid ah dadka soomaaliyeed, waxaa jira dad badan oo ka baayac mushtareeya qaadka, kuwa soo dejiya, kuwa daabula, kuwa sii gada oo dakligoodu ku tiirsan yahay iyo dowladda oo ka hesha cashuur badan.  Sidoo kale qaadku waxa uu il-dhaqaale oo muhiima u yahay dakhliga waxsoosaarka wadamada Geeska Africa, waxdhoofinta GDP-ga mandaqada waxa uu ka yahay 15%. Beeralaydda qaadka Kenya iyo Itoobiya waxa ay dhaqaale badan ka helaan qaadka ay u soo suuq geeyaan dhulka Somalida. Sida Bangiga Adduunku qaybta Hormarintu daabacday guud ahaan Jamuuriyadda Somalia.

Qaadka celcelis ahaan maalin kasta Kenya ay Somalia u soo dhoofiso waxa ay ka heshaa lacag adag oo dhan $1,000,000 million (per day), todobaadkiina $7,000,000 million bishii $30,000,000 million wadarta ay sanadkii ka heshaana waa $360,000,000 million (2019).

Halka Itoobiya celcelis ahaan maalin kasta qaadka ay Somalia u soo dhoofiso waxa ay ka heshaa lacag adag oo dhan $1,200,000 million todobaadkiina $8,400,000 million, bishii $36,000,000 million, wadarta guud ee ay sanadkii ka heshaana waa $432,000,000 million. Tani oo wadarta guud ee qaadka uga baxday Somalia ka dhigaysa sanadkii 2019 ah $792,000,000 million.

Saamaynta dhaqaale ee hakinta qaadka ayaa isugu jirta mid taban iyo mid togan. Saamaynta taban ayaa ka imaan doonta dakhligi ay heli jireen dhamaan dadkii ku xidhnaa qaadka oo meesha ka baxay. Halka saamaynta togan ka imaanayso lacagaha faraha badan ee ku bixi jiray qaadka oo ahaa lacag adag (hard currency) in ay kenya iyo Itoobiya aado ay gudaha dalka ku baaqanaysa oo ay wareega suuqa ka qeyb aadanayso. 

Saamaynta Dhoofka Xoolaha

Dhoofinta xoolaha nool inkastoo ay jiraan caqabado ay wajahayeen 20-kii sano ee la soo dhaafay hadana waa isha ugu muhiimsan dhaqaalaha iyo waxdhoofinta Somalia e dunida. Caalamka waxdhofinta xoolaha waxa ay kaga jirtaa dalka labaad ee xaga dhoofinta xoolaha idaha. Tirade xoolaha la dhoofiyo ayaa lagu qiyaasay inay hoos u dhacday sanadkii 2017, tano loo sababaynayo saamaynta abaartii iyo xayiraadii Sucuudigu saaray xoolaha Somalia. Sanadkii 2015 waxa dhoofay 5.3 milyan oo nee foo xoolo ah, lacag ahaana noqonaysa $384 million, sanadkii 2017 ayaa dhoofku xooluhu hoos ugu soo dhacay 1.3 neef oo xoolo ah. Inkasta oo ay xoolaha nool dhoofkoodu korday 11% marka la isbarbar dhigo sanadkii 2018 iyo 2019 ka, hadana wali waa mid aan buuxin Karin baahida waxsoosaar ee dalka looga baahan yahay si loo yareeyo isu dheelitir la’aanta ganacis ee uu dunida dalku la leeyahay.

Xilligan hadda la joogo waa kolka xoolaha ugu badan ka dhoofaan dekedaha dalka, haba ugu badnaadeen kuwa ku socda wadanka Sucuudiga ee sanad walba malaayiin muslimiin ahi u xaj tagaan. Hadda ma jiraan ama aad ayay u yaryihin xoolaha loo dhoofiyo Sucuudigu maadaama shaki ku jiro in sanadkan la xajin doon iyo in kale iyada oo haddaba Sucuudigu joojiyay fiisooyinkii cumrada. Halkaas Somalia waxa uga baaqan doona lacago badan oo ka soo geli jiray dhoofinta xoolaha oo ah isha dhaqaalaha.

Saamaynta taban eek u dhici doonta qaybta xoolaha ma noqon doonto id ku eg tujaarta xoolaha dhoofisa ee waxa ay u daadegi doontaa ilaa qofka xoolo dhaqatada ah, gaadiidka daabula xoolaha, kuwa adhi-xaraashka loo yaaan iyo cid kasya oo si toos ah ama si dadban dakhligeedu ugu xidhan yahay xoolaha tiiyoo yarayn doonta awoodooda wax-iibsiga deedna saamayn balaadhan ku yeelan doonta qaybaha kale ee dhaqaalaha eek a faa’iideysan jiray dakhliga soo gala dadka dakhligoodu ku xidhan yahay xoolaha.

 

Tixraac

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/811231567610111001/pdf/Somalia-EconomicUpdate-Fourth-Edition-Building-Education-to-Boost-Human-Capital.pdf).

http://gsh.parliament.gov.so/images/Miisaaniyadda/Xeerka_Miisaaniyadda_2020_V5.pdf

https://centralbank.gov.so/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Summary-of-Trade-Statistics-2010-2018-updated.pdf

https://goobjoog.com/saamaynta-dhaqaale-ee-coronavirus-ku-yeelan-doono-soomaaliya/

 

 

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